Royal LePage sees a correction but not a crash for the Canadian real estate market in 2009. The Average house price is forecast to fall 3.0% nationally and 4% in Toronto.
After experiencing a significant reset in 2008 - a reaction to continuous dire news surrounding the health of the global economy combined with a cooling from the previous years' fervid activity levels - Canada's resale real estate market should see only modest price and unit sales corrections take place across the country during 2009. Both national average house prices and the number of homes sold is expected to decline this year, according to the Royal LePage 2009 Market Survey Forecast released today.

Nationally, average house prices are forecast to dip by 3.0 per cent from last year to $295,000, while transactions are projected to fall to 416,000 (-3.5 %) unit sales in 2009. In spite of this cooling trend on a national level, price and activity gains are anticipated in some provinces.

Emotional reaction to recent economic and political instability did much to dampen consumer confidence during the latter part of 2008, causing a marked slowdown in house sales activity.
However, as a more rational understanding of the issues gains ground, together with a wide range of announced corrective measures, consumer confidence is anticipated to recover, prompting real estate activity to pick up once again in the latter half of 2009. Further, Canada in 2009 enjoys a stronger economic foundation than most countries and that should temper the housing market correction.
The combination of low inflation, reasonable employment levels and improving housing affordability, driven in part by low mortgage rates, are anticipated to stimulate demand in the coming months.

"While Canada's housing market is anticipated to continue to move through a period of adjustment over the next six months, we should expect modestly lower home prices, not a U.S.-style collapse, which was brought on by a structural failure of the entire American credit system," said Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
"Most consumers are not aware that nationally, Canadian housing market activity peaked in 2007 and has been adjusting lower since. We are well into this inevitable cyclical correction."

Added Soper: "While a grey cloud hangs over some markets, the sky is not falling. In recent years, Canada has been a difficult place to be a purchaser of real estate, particularly for first-time buyers. When real estate markets correct, inventory levels rise, providing buyers choices instead of frustrating bidding wars. In 2009, appropriately-priced homes will still sell for fair value."

The housing market is expected to perform quite differently from region to region across the country. The most significant price decreases are forecast for Canada's most expensive city, Vancouver, which has experienced above average price increases for most of the decade.
The correction is a natural cyclical reaction to an extended period of high price appreciation. Vancouver's fundamentals, including growing population figures and the positive economic spinoffs expected from the 2010 Olympics, remain very positive.

Secondary Ontario markets heavily populated by people working in the manufacturing sectors are also anticipated to experience greater than average declines in house prices and activity levels in 2009.

Canadians have been confused and justifiably skeptical of the efforts of the worlds' central banks and governments to combat the global economic crisis. There is broad belief, however, that Canada's financial house is in better shape than many peer countries, particularly the U.S. While the federal and most provincial governments have been slow to implement economic stimulus packages, they enjoy broad public support in principle. Together with the actions taken by the Bank of Canada, the positive impact on consumer confidence stemming from infrastructure spending announcements and other stimulus programs is expected to be significant.

Concluded Soper: "We believe that the Canadian economy will struggle early in 2009, but that conditions will progress continually throughout the year. Improving credit markets, the stimulative impact from a weaker Canadian dollar, together with the implementation of large fiscal stimulus initiatives, set the stage for a return to growth in the second half of 2009."

Christine's Bolognese Lasagna

This lasagna is the perfect balance of creamy bechamel, cheese and rich meat sauce. You’ll need a pasta machine to make the pasta. It’s a fairly lengthy recipe but you will love the end result. As a shortcut , you can use pre-made fresh lasagna sheets and /or my all natural tomota sauce over the meat If you want to just pour the sauce over pasta, add some cream to the meat sauce after adding the wine.

Pasta
1 3/4 cups unbleached all purpose flour (425 ml)
Pinch salt
3 eggs

Bolognese Sauce
3 tbsp. olive oil (45 ml)
1 1/2 pounds lean ground beef (675 grams)
1 small Italian spicy sausage, casing removed
1 Tbsp. butter (15 ml)
2 small onions, finely diced
2 small carrots, finely diced
Several sprigs fresh thyme
2 bay leaves
1 tsp. dried oregano ( 5 ml)
One 28-ounce can plum tomatoes with juice, chopped (784 grams)
1/4 cup dry white wine ( 50 ml)
sea salt and freshly cracked black pepper

Béchamel sauce
1/3 cup butter (75 ml)
1/3 cup plus 1 tbsp. flour (75 ml + 15 ml)
4 cups milk (1 l)
Pinch freshly grated nutmeg
sea salt and freshly cracked black pepper
1/4 cup Parmigiano Reggiano cheese (50 ml)

Oil, for baking dish
1/3 cup freshly grated Parmigiano Reggiano cheese (75 ml)
sea salt and freshly cracked black pepper

Pasta
In food processor with plastic dough attachment, combine flour and salt . Pulse to blend. Add eggs, one at a time until incorporated. Pulse until mixture is crumbly but starts to come together. Remove dough from mixer and knead several time until smooth . Cover and let rest for 1 hour.

Meat Sauce
In a large skillet, heat the olive oil on medium. Add the beef and Italian sausage and cook for 20-25 minutes stirring often until browned and all water has evaporated. Add the butter , onion and the carrots and sauté for 5-6 minutes just to soften.

Add the thyme sprigs, bay leaves, oregano, tomatoes , white wine and salt and pepper and bring to boil. Reduce heat to low and simmer, covered, for 55 to 60 minutes or until sauce is thickened and flavour has developed to your liking. Adjust seasoning.Sauce should be loose.

Béchamel Sauce
In a medium saucepan on medium heat, melt butter. Add the flour and stir with wooden spoon until a paste forms. Remove from heat and add the cold milk a little at a time while stirring well between each addition. Return to heat once all the milk is added and mixture is smooth.

Continue stirring over medium heat until sauce comes to a boil and thickens, about 5 minutes. Add a pinch of nutmeg and season with salt and pepper to taste. Add the Parmigiano cheese and stir.

Assembly
Preheat oven to 350 degrees F.
Oil the bottom of a 13- by 9- by 2-inch baking dish.

Cut dough into 12 pieces. Roll dough into thick sheets on the pasta machine, starting at the thickest setting, reducing pasta setting one mark each time you roll the dough through.

Cook pasta in boiling salted water for about 4 minutes or until just al dente. Drain and lay on baking sheets and drizzle with olive oil to prevent sticking.

Reserve a quarter of the béchamel sauce for the top layer. Layer lasagna as desired starting with pasta and alternating bolognese sauce, grated cheese and béchamel. Season well between each layer. Finish with a layer pasta, the reserved béchamel sauce and extra cheese on the top layer to finish (you should have 6 layers of lasagna). Bake lasagna in middle of oven for about 35 to 40 minutes or until golden. Serves: 6 to 8 servings